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Housing Bubble in the Philippines Posible ba? Yes or No?

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IntraLover

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Housing Bubble in the Philippines Posible ba? Yes or No?
« on: May 20, 2012, 02:57:15 PM »
Housing Bubble in the Philippines  Posible ba? Yes or No

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Housing Bubble in the Philippines Posible ba? Yes or No?
« on: May 20, 2012, 02:57:15 PM »

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ZuvelCompany

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Re: Housing Bubble in the Philippines Posible ba? Yes or No?
« Reply #1 on: May 20, 2012, 07:16:01 PM »
dito sa pilipinas kaya mahina ang demand kasi hindi kaya ng masang Pilipino ang price

dito sa atin maraming walang bahay na nagtyatyaga nalang mangupahan o di kaya sa squater manirahan.

minimum wage nga lang diba is P410 per day..


paano makakabili ng bahay na halagang million? Sige nga?



WorldPerksPH

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Re: Housing Bubble in the Philippines Posible ba? Yes or No?
« Reply #2 on: May 20, 2012, 07:22:36 PM »
Marami namang OFW e... so ok lang sila mostly ang buyer ng mga condominium projects ngayon.


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DonaldTrumpPH

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Re: Housing Bubble in the Philippines Posible ba? Yes or No?
« Reply #3 on: May 20, 2012, 07:24:53 PM »
When it comes to high rise developments and condo units in Metro Manila, it seems to me that an oversupply has started to manifest itself in recent months.

From my experience, a large number of condo buyers are OFW’s intending to rent out or resell their units upon completion of the building. However, if you go an take a picture of the Global City in Bonifacio for example, you will notice quickly that only a few units are lit up at night, suggesting that most units are uninhabited.

This assessment is also backed by a recent Colliers International report stating that there’s an oversupply of condo units in Metro Manila (especially smaller units) of about 10%. Furthermore, it seems to me that the supply of units for rent has dramatically increased in past months, and rental rates have been stagnating or falling.

At last but not least, a lot of OFW’s who are buying units are US based or paid in US$. For them, the prices of condos have appreciated significantly in the last couple of years due to the falling value of the dollar (1US$ would buy you 56 PHP in 2005, now its only 43 PHP). Hence it would not be surprising to see demand for new condos fall, especially since domestic demand for condo units is virtually non existent.

In summary, the risk for a bubble in the Philippines would not be rooted in poor financing practices, but rather oversupply built on the premise of significant foreign demand.

BusinessManPH

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Re: Housing Bubble in the Philippines Posible ba? Yes or No?
« Reply #4 on: May 20, 2012, 07:32:53 PM »
dito sa pilipinas kaya mahina ang demand kasi hindi kaya ng masang Pilipino ang price

dito sa atin maraming walang bahay na nagtyatyaga nalang mangupahan o di kaya sa squater manirahan.

minimum wage nga lang diba is P410 per day..


paano makakabili ng bahay na halagang million? Sige nga?




Oo nga tama ka @zuvel, like for example, a 2.5M 23sqm condo, downpayment of around 200K, monthly of around 30K-40k, ilan lang bang pinoy ang nakakaafford ng ganyan monthly? Dba? masyado syang malaki.... Putting this together, this would mean someone earning at least 100K/month but safer at 150K/month, e ilang lang ba sila? Most of living below poverty line dba?


There is strong activity in the real estate sector right now especially in terms of high rise development, hopefully through equity rather than bank financing and the only way to really predict a real estate bubble would be for the real estate industry to provide true and accurate information to researchers who are studying this phenomenon.

PinoySpecialist

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Re: Housing Bubble in the Philippines Posible ba? Yes or No?
« Reply #5 on: May 20, 2012, 07:35:13 PM »
ganyan din ba ang nangyari sa US ? yung recession sa US? nag karoon din ng real estate bubble don diba kaya nagka recession kasi maraming di nakabayad ng amortization ng lupa or property.

marygracedatuin

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Re: Housing Bubble in the Philippines Posible ba? Yes or No?
« Reply #6 on: June 07, 2012, 06:24:02 PM »
The Housing Bubble is parallel to the economic state of a country. Economically stable countries might experience more housing bubble than those poor countries. If you notice, recent real estate bubbles happened on highly-competitive countries such as Japan, United States, Argentina, Britain, Netherlands, Italy, etc. We are not denying the fact that someday Philippines might experience a housing bubble, but not in the near future.

AdGeek

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Re: Housing Bubble in the Philippines Posible ba? Yes or No?
« Reply #7 on: July 19, 2012, 01:15:32 PM »
Sabi sa nabasa ko sa Manila Bulleting: Di daw pwede mangyari sa Pilipinas yun..

basahin nyo dito

No real estate bubble but experts wary


Will a crash follow the surge? Are we in a bubble that’s about to burst? A real estate bubble occurs when values begin to increase and reach a point where they outstrip the collective incomes of potential buyers. This causes drastic stalls in lending and sends values spiraling downward.

Enrique Soriano, Ateneo program director for real estate and senior adviser for Wong+Bernstein Business Advisory, recently tackled the phenomenon in a lecture, explaining further that the present property situation does not show that the Philippines isn’t in a bubble yet as the local has exhibited strong fundamentals. He said, however, that the country shouldn’t let its guard down.

He revealed to Inquirer Property of the indicators (such as price points, low borrowing rates, concentration on the National Capital Region, inexperienced players) that lead to a bubble. He also warned that global events may also induce a bubble.

“The key is for stakeholders to be well informed, be made aware of their responsibilities and push for collective programs on property best practices,” Soriano said.

He added that “the role of government is to promote a regularity regime and it must play that role without fear or favor.”

Victor Asuncion, CBRE executive director for global research and consultancy, said there is no possibility of an asset price bubble in the Philippine real estate industry because most projects being built in Metro Manila and other urban centers cater to end-users and not speculating buyers (for office and residential purposes).

Growing consumer demand

“For retail, the developments are addressing the growing consumer demand. Therefore, the buyers of land across the country are either developing or landbanking for future development and not necessarily to ‘trade’ the asset. In fact, there is scarcity of developable land in key urban centers now like Makati, Taguig, Quezon City and Alabang,” Asuncion said.

He cited an expert definition of asset price bubble as the continuous sharp rise in asset prices with expectations of further price increases attracting more buyers, particularly speculators, with the intention to trade the assets and not for end-use or for recurring income.

Soriano said “The current scenario in the country is that almost 80 percent of residential and office developments are in the National Capital Region and developers will jockey for every piece of real estate. With this happening, land prices will continue to increase,” Soriano said.

Naturally, he said, developers would now shift from mid-rise to high-rise developments to offset the higher than usual cost of land. The next scenario would be to build higher, more densely and borrow more to finance bigger, riskier developments.

The ideal scenario would be for developers to disperse their development thrusts outside NCR. The growth areas outside of Manila are Subic and Clark, Iloilo, Bacolod, General Santos City, Cagayan De Oro, Cebu and Davao and even Antipolo, Sta. Rosa City, Pampanga and Bulacan.

Spotting red flags

Soriano stressed that recognizing when a bubble may occur becomes easier with the ability to spot red flags in the areas of lending, spending and employment.

“When the number of available home loan programs increases, home ownership increases with it. While this is sometimes not dangerous, it can be a clear sign of a bubble, especially when buyers increase housing obligations while their income remains the same,” he said.

Soriano said that “as long as mortgages are in good standing, values hold firm or increase. However, as natural life occurrences (illness, lay-offs and pay cuts), unfold in large numbers, condo owners find themselves at the mercy of downsizing—even foreclosure, which gradually drives the price of real estate down.”

Buyer’s market

Soriano also opined: “However, when a market becomes saturated with mortgage debt, lending will often decrease and the number of potential home-buyers follows. Equity naturally slips and profits from home sales gradually decrease (in what becomes a buyer’s market).

“When values continue to fall, it often leads to rashes of homeowners who are suddenly ‘underwater’ (who owe more on their mortgages than their homes are worth) and in extreme cases, foreclosure looms.”

Soriano also cited an increase in unemployment when job fronts level off and unemployment rates increase as a sign that a bubble could be on the horizon; also when workers begin moving to more favorable markets in search of better jobs, or when consumer spending decreases and the market becomes flooded with available properties. He said such scenarios drive values down, marking the true making of a bubble.

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DonaldTrumpPH

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Re: Housing Bubble in the Philippines Posible ba? Yes or No?
« Reply #8 on: July 19, 2012, 01:18:02 PM »
Bubble? e marami pang walang condo condo and houses dito sa atin a...  are we USA where people own more than one property, compared to other nation we are still left behind and the property sector is underdeveloped. I think there should be guidance from the government to balance the supply and demand. With government's support, property bubble is far from reality. 

AdGeek

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Re: Housing Bubble in the Philippines Posible ba? Yes or No?
« Reply #9 on: August 01, 2012, 04:44:46 PM »
I thought sharing this great article with you guys.Ano tingin nyo po dito?


8 trends to affect housing purchases.
By: Tessa R. Salazar
Philippine Daily Inquirer

Buyers make or break projects. What factors, therefore, would influence buyers’ demand for housing in the future? What obstacles will affect the real estate purchases of Filipinos? Here are 8 trends to look out for to determine the industry forecast:
1 Overseas Filipinos’ financial status vis-à-vis global economic concerns. Claro dG. Cordero Jr., Jones Lang LaSalle Leechiu’s head of research, consulting and valuation, said the recent uptake in real estate purchases has primarily been demand driven. Hence, the less than optimistic recovery of the US economy and the spiraling debt concerns in the Eurozone may affect job security in these areas, and may affect the earnings of overseas Filipinos which have helped finance these purchases.

Enrique Soriano, Ateneo program director for real estate and senior adviser for Wong+Bernstein Business Advisory, agreed that there has definitely been pressure on overseas Filipinos.

“Absolutely depressed economies in Europe and North America are creating jitters to the local property market. OFs are sending less money as a result of limited opportunities in the host countries. In one study, the growth of OF remittance has declined to single digit levels, with Middle East and Europe declining by 15 percent and North America exhibiting a big drop of 40 percent in remittances. Only Asia continues to remain robust, exhibiting double digit remittance at 12 percent,” Soriano said.

Julius Guevara, Colliers International’s associate director for valuation and advisory and head of consultancy and research, said that “if the economic conditions in Europe and the United States continue to deteriorate, thereby exacerbating the slowdown in China, then there would be an effect on remittances in some way.” Colliers International is a global real estate services.

Guevara added: “However, as was seen during the global financial crisis in 2008 where remittances were steady despite a slowdown, then we could also expect the same resiliency. In times of trouble, Filipinos abroad have no qualms taking second or even third jobs just to meet their financial obligations back home.”

Victor Asuncion, CBRE executive director for global research and consultancy, said OFs are “resilient amid the lingering global economic crisis.”

“If they lose their job, they may still be redeployed in other countries, or could consider starting a business in the Philippines. Ultimately, the motivation of OFs to go abroad is to afford buying their lifetime dream of their own house and lot, send all their kids to school to earn a degree and have a decent life.”

2 Population/demographic movements at home. Cordero revealed that another interesting trend which may affect the future real estate environment, primarily the housing market, is the impending change in the demographic makeup of the local population.

“As seen in the case of Japan in the 1990s and the United States of late, the introduction of various measures to disrupt the demographic pattern (through various measures such as population control and incentives for delaying births) has contributed to the slump in housing demand.”

Guevara said the Philippines will not be experiencing the same situation as Japan with regard to population.

“If you look at a tornado graph of the age distribution of our population, you will see that this is weighted heavily on the younger age set. So, in terms of demand for housing, we see that this will be sustained due to a rising population, whether this be through housing purchases or rentals,” Guevara said.

Asuncion said “the close to 100-million population of the Philippines is the ‘unique selling proposition’ of the Philippine housing market. Population control in its broadest sense is not expected to influence the persistent housing backlog of the country.”

Soriano said the “Draconian policies apply to countries that are considered ‘statist’ economies. The Middle East, Japan, Singapore and China are classic statist economies and can unilaterally make or unmake real estate demand via regulatory initiatives from adjusting interest rates to carving vast tracts of land and convert them to cities to accommodate the migration of workers.”

3 Major policy shift on land due to calamities. “In the Philippines, we have yet to experience major policy shift in land and demographic movements. The only exception would be when government uses its regulatory and police powers to isolate areas prone to earthquakes and flash floods,” Soriano said.

4 OFs’ preference for high-rise apartments. Soriano observed that with the increasing population rate in the Philippines, in particular the close to 17 million people in the expanded National Capital Region, people are currently purchasing affordable condos in Metro Manila because of the proximity and the orientation of OFs that have experienced living in high-rise apartments in their host countries.

5 Affordability, prevailing market conditions and interest rates. Asuncion said that the “affordability of the property, given the prevailing market conditions, prevailing interest rates enable the buyer to avail of cheap bank loans to amortize the purchase.”

Soriano said other factors affecting purchases in real estate include the demographics, economy, interest rates and government policies. Similarly, interest rates would have a major effect as a decline in interest rates encourages more people to purchase the property.

6 A “bloom or gloom” general economy. Asuncion observed: “In the case of the Philippines now, confidence from local and foreign investors is strong and encouraging. This results to more investments and more demand for real estate to conduct business. A stable economy translates to a stable employment.”

7 Fluctuations in government policy. According to Soriano, inconsistencies in government policy and implementation can also cause a decline in confidence in the real estate sector.

8 Function/purpose of buying. Asuncion said buyers’ purpose to buy properties—either for their own use or for business—can affect the pattern of real estate purchases in the Philippines

annemincar

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Re: Housing Bubble in the Philippines Posible ba? Yes or No?
« Reply #10 on: August 01, 2012, 07:52:00 PM »
Developers won't see the need to build more developments kung alam nilang bumababa ang deman for property acquisition. Also, more and more people are into condo living, since nakita nila 'yung mga benefits. G

annemincar

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Re: Housing Bubble in the Philippines Posible ba? Yes or No?
« Reply #11 on: August 01, 2012, 07:55:27 PM »
Developers won't see the need to build more developments kung alam nilang bumababa ang deman for property acquisition. Also, more and more people are into condo living, since nakita nila 'yung mga benefits. Gaya ko, I never thought I'd actually end up living in one since wala akong bilib sa condominiums, but when I started residing here in Cypress Towers, a DMCI Homes development, nag- iba perception ko.

MotherTouch

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Re: Housing Bubble in the Philippines Posible ba? Yes or No?
« Reply #12 on: August 01, 2012, 10:24:33 PM »
Developers won't see the need to build more developments kung alam nilang bumababa ang deman for property acquisition. Also, more and more people are into condo living, since nakita nila 'yung mga benefits. Gaya ko, I never thought I'd actually end up living in one since wala akong bilib sa condominiums, but when I started residing here in Cypress Towers, a DMCI Homes development, nag- iba perception ko.

actually i am torn with this... kasi nga diba since up for sale ang mga condo ngayon.. what if lumindol? ano ang assurance ng bumibili pag lumindol lalo na sa mga condo na alam naman natin baka gumuho nalang bigla dba nakakatakot din?


marygracedatuin

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Re: Housing Bubble in the Philippines Posible ba? Yes or No?
« Reply #13 on: August 06, 2012, 11:34:00 AM »
Hello Mothertouch! Alam po ng DMCI kung ano ang ginagawa nila. At since inevitable ang earthquake, siguradong ito ay nasa top-most consideration nila sa pagpapaplano ng foundation ng building.

IntraLover

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Re: Housing Bubble in the Philippines Posible ba? Yes or No?
« Reply #14 on: August 06, 2012, 01:12:30 PM »
am just wondering.. may mga naging cases na ba ang DMCI or any other real estate developer na nilindol yung kanilang condominium for the past years ? Ano ano preventive measures nilang ginagawa at ano ano mga precautionary measure meron sila?

Alam ko merong ilang estate developers nagcoconduct ng drill e... not so sure kung alin alin sa mga developers ang gumagawa nun.

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Re: Housing Bubble in the Philippines Posible ba? Yes or No?
« Reply #14 on: August 06, 2012, 01:12:30 PM »

 

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