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DonaldTrumpPH

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Stock Predictions 2013
« on: February 25, 2013, 04:03:36 PM »
Ano tingin nyo sa stock market ngayon 2013? Bull run talaga sya dba?


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Stock Predictions 2013
« on: February 25, 2013, 04:03:36 PM »

Mountain View

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Re: Stock Predictions 2013
« Reply #1 on: June 14, 2013, 02:46:00 PM »
Mukhang bull market pa rin but lately the market is experiencing correction and in deep dip.

Have you read this already?


Sa mga hindi nakabasa ng article ni Mr. John Mangun.

A very Bad Tuesday written by John Mangun. Businessmirror June 12, 2013.


THE Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE) was in a freefall on Tuesday, losing 318 points or 4.64 percent. While “experts” are saying that this was a result of foreign selling, their “analysis” is not true. While the PSE was dropping like a dead bird, foreigners bought P7.48 billion worth of shares and sold P7.52 billion for a net sale of P40 million. That amount is nothing when the total exchange volume is P12.54 billion.

Three pieces of information negatively impacted local investors’ stock-market sentiment.

Merchandise exports declined 12.8 percent year-on-year in April. While the export business is only a small contributor to the overall economic activity, a few million Filipinos depend on the income that exports provide. The key to the deal about our exports is that in two major markets, consumers are not buying. Shipments to the US fell 10.2 percent and those to China dropped 8.3 percent. One month of data does not make a trend. However, April exports fell 6.7 percent from March.

The government is encouraging, if not intervening, to make the peso cheaper and, therefore, our exported products less expensive in the hopes of stimulating purchases by our export buyers. The question, though, is how cheap the prices of exported goods have to be to encourage buyers to buy when they do not have the money.

More depressing news came with the latest unemployment numbers. The National Statistics Office (NSO) Labor Force Survey reported that unemployment in April reached 7.5 percent, significantly higher than the 6.9 percent in the same period last year. Our current unemployment rate is the highest since the 8 percent recorded in 2010.

The government quickly attributed this to the “effects of the scorching summer heat on agricultural productivity.” According to the NSO report, the number of agricultural workers declined by 624,000 from April 2012. That is all very nice, but the explanation only shows that this administration and the three previous ones have done little to improve the agricultural sector. The government’s rationale is like saying the house fell down because the termites ate the wood. No, the house was destroyed because the ones in charge did nothing to stop the termite infestation.

While I disagree with almost everything the Left believes, they are right about one thing: rural lower-income Filipino agricultural workers are the peasant class, the serfs of the country. The Philippines has the lowest agricultural yield productivity among our neighbors and that trend is getting worse. The Agriculture and Fisheries Modernization Act was enacted into law in 1998. Now the legislature is set to have another comprehensive National Agri-Fishery Mechanization Program.

It is all a bad joke. Dr. Romulo Davide, a Ramon Magsaysay Award winner in 2012, is one of a dozen or so agricultural experts who are helping Filipino farmers increase productivity and make more money. Their programs are usually targeted at specific groups—Davide’s targets upland farmers—and they have shown years of success. But the road to failure of government thinking is: another committee, another bureaucratic reorganization, a strongly worded mandate, and do it again in five or 10 years after nothing has been accomplished.

While not the first time this has happened, the Philippines in March accomplished something that is usually expected of nations in a civil war or experiencing economic collapse: negative foreign direct investment (FDI). A year ago, FDI was a positive $178 million, which in itself is a grain of sand on the global beach of foreign investment. But this time, Philippine FDI actually lost $78 million, meaning foreigners took more investment money out of the country than they brought in. FDI is the “good” kind of investment that is going to create jobs. In fact, total first-quarter net FDI is 8.5 percent lower than in 2012.

On the way up, the government was saying how its economic policies were responsible for the PSE reaching record highs. Now there is silence about why the market was down on our very bad Tuesday. Success has many fathers, but failure is an orphan. I rarely get upset at stock-market movement, perhaps because I was learning how to trade the markets when most PSE participants were learning how to use a toilet. But if stock markets do forecast the future, the Philippines is going to have more bad Tuesdays in the months to come.

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Re: Stock Predictions 2013
« Reply #1 on: June 14, 2013, 02:46:00 PM »

 

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